The fear behind this belief did not come from GLP-1 research. It came from starvation studies, and the transplant is the problem.
Where the "overshoot" idea came from:
Classic starvation and refeeding work, including the Minnesota Starvation Experiment and studies of Army Ranger training, found that in lean young men put through severe energy restriction, refeeding can produce fat mass that overshoots pre-restriction levels by several kilograms. This pattern is sometimes called post-starvation obesity. Modelling and review work has proposed a mechanism called collateral fattening, in which fat mass recovers faster than lean mass and hunger persists until lean tissue is restored.
Prospective cohort studies add that weight cycling predicts later weight gain and higher body fat in some groups, most consistently in people who started at a normal weight, though meta-analyses have not settled whether cycling raises type 2 diabetes risk or causes broad metabolic harm.
Every one of those findings involves large, rapid, non-pharmacological energy deficits, often in lean people. That is not the same physiology as stopping an appetite-modifying medicine after a supervised titration.
What the GLP-1 evidence actually shows:
When the question is put to the GLP-1 evidence, overshoot above pre-treatment weight is not what trials describe. Discontinuation studies document partial regain trending back toward baseline, with a net loss often still present at long follow-up rather than a crossing above the starting point.
The SURMOUNT-4 post-hoc analysis sorted people who stopped into bands by how much of their loss returned. Systematic overshoot above baseline is not what it reports as the dominant outcome.
That leaves a real gap rather than a reassurance. Nobody has quantified, in a large long-term GLP-1 cohort, what proportion of people eventually exceed their pre-treatment weight or what predicts it. The theoretical concern in the review literature is not overshoot in kilograms but composition: repeated cycles of loss and regain returning proportionally more fat than lean tissue. That is a hypothesis awaiting long-term body-composition data, not a finding.
What can be said plainly is that "the weight comes back double" is not supported by the trial or meta-analytic evidence.